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If
you believe everything you read coming out of the various analyst
houses around the world the PC is on its last legs, or more to the
point, the PC is actually well and truly dead since Apple used the iPad
and Mac to hammer nails into its already outdated coffin.
TL;DRYou'll (hopefully) note that I intentionally separate Android from Google. Repeat after me: Android is not Google and Google is not Android. Android has become something that is independent of Google (or anyone else, for that matter).
• Next time you say/hear "fragmentation sucks/is not a problem" consider for whom.
• Fragmentation will cause Android to continue to grow.
• Google has lost control of Android due to fragmentation.
Android's fragmentation has become a giant millstone for Android app development, leaving it worryingly behind its iOS equivalent. It's not the panoply of screen sizes and formats; the Android layout engine is actually quite good at minimising that annoyance. It's not the frequent instances of completely different visual behavior on two phones running exactly the same version of Android; again, annoying, but relatively minor. Device fragmentation is just an irritation.
OS fragmentation, though, is an utter disaster.
– Jon Evans
| Market Side | Axis of Fragmentation | Positive value |
|---|---|---|
| Users | Device | Some users like physical keyboards. Some don’t. Some like pink. Some don’t. |
| Carriers | User Interface | Carriers want to differentiate from competitors, and differentiate within the products they carry. Carriers want their brands to pervade the experience. |
| Device Manufacturers | Service | Device manufacturers want higher margins & recurring revenue that can come from providing services such as search & location. |
| Market Side | Axis of Fragmentation | Negative value |
|---|---|---|
| Developers | OS | Developers want to be able to reach as many end users as possible. Lots of OS variants means either investing in more dev/test or limiting market. |
| Carriers | User Interface | Each new UI requires carrier’s customization to have to be ported. Raises costs. (Note this is an example of fragmentation being a double edged sword in some cases). |
| Users | Marketplace | End users want to be able to discover and acquire apps from as few places as possible. |
Google lost control of Android a long time ago and nothing it does will allow it to regain control. In fact, almost anything I tries will simply increase fragmentation along most fragmentation axes.Remember we are talking about a complex multi-sided market (6 sides) with high-impedance between key sides of the market (see my "superior" post). The OS providers side of the market is dominated by Apple and Google. Microsoft is serious about being a third player, and I believe it will push, push, push until it is. There's also RIM and a few others, but it's safe to ignore them here (Cue Scoble: "Charlie says Bada is dead"). [Tech Editor's note: Three days after this post was originally written, Samsung announced that it would open-source bada, and tie it into Meego.]
• Apple – Makes the vast majority of its money by getting paid ~$150 up front from mobile operators per iPhone sold. The high-margin iPhone business will becomes a smaller relative portion of the overall Apple business. Apple is motivated to keep propping up this high-margin business as long as possible and to start leveraging its significant market share to grow revenue from services. Apple has caused an imbalance in the ecosystem by cutting third parties out of the device manufacturer side of the market.
• Google – Invested in Android believing it could own mobile search like it owns web search by tying Android to Google search. At one point, believed it could disrupt the carriers (the link is from November 2006, when Eric Schmidt suggested we'd take free phones in return for watching targeted ads). It got slapped back down, hard. Now, the desire to continue to invest in Android is still about search, but also about owning a social graph (via Google+) and being pissed as hell that Apple is so successful. Google is deeply frustrated with the fragmentation of Android and has been trying all sorts of tactics to rein it in.
• Microsoft – Feels stuck between the Apple & Google models. Going it alone, ala Apple, is not possible due to the fact that no carrier will ever let anyone else do what Apple did to them again. The Google model is way too similar to what the old Windows Mobile was like (irony much?). Microsoft sees mobile as a means to an end (as Google does). But the end is different. Where Google has only really one service it can monetise via mobile, Microsoft has several (Office, Xbox LIVE, etc). In addition, Microsoft has a cash cow that is at serious risk due to Microsoft not being a key player in mobile: Windows. Microsoft must be relevant in mobile or Windows revenues will plummet because everything is going mobile. I think Microsoft really likes the fact it generates revenue from Android, but I doubt it has that much impact on the bottom line.Only Apple directly profits from being an OS provider in the mobile ecosystem. For Google, it is a cost centre. Apple is also the only OS provider that leaves device manufacturers out in the cold.
• Investing in the Nexus brand. Nexus is Google's "pure" Android play. The idea is a phone with a more rigidly defined user experience, more consistent hardware, the latest OS with a consistent upgrade policy, a single marketplace, and consistent (Google endorsed) services. I love this strategy from an end-user's perspective. Nexus phones will sell fairly well. But the numbers will pale in comparison to the non-Nexus phones sold. But Nexus will only be "fairly" successful because it is counter to what the carriers want and every dollar Google spends on advertising it incents the device manufactures and carriers to spend more on advertising their differentiated products. Nexus actually worsens fragmentation along most axes by introducing yet another "Android model" into the mix.
• Wishing Everyone Will/Would Upgrade. This actually seems to be Google's primary tactic. As Eric Schmidt said last week: "With Android, Google's 'core strategy' is to get everyone on Ice Cream Sandwich, the latest version of the platform." Google is trying to do this two ways:
• Holding Back Access to Google Services. "Follow our rules or you can't use Google Search." This just pisses Google's partners off and smells like anti-trust. Not that it matters, because Google can't really do this because there are enough reasonable alternatives to Google's services now. In addition, the battle of the social graph is causing Google to push Google+ everywhere. What strategy tax (that is: when big organisations are forced to make non-ideal decisions because of their profit motive) at Google do you think will trump the other: Android consistency or Google+ everywhere?
• Holding Back Access to the Latest Version of Android. "Follow our rules or you don't get Ice Cream Sandwich, etc…" Uh, it's open source. Fork. More fragmentation. Simply. Will. Not. Work.None of these tactics will work, primarily because none of the other sides of the market have any motivation to help (other than end users, who would benefit, but consumers don't really have enough power). Secondarily, these tactics won't work because Android has already been so fragmented and such a market success (in terms of units).
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